Post USDA Market report 12.08.10

US Ending Stocks (bil bu)
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  2009/10           USDA    Avg Guess      Range      USDA Jul
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  Soybeans          0.160     0.166     0.153-0.181     0.175 
  Corn              1.426     1.459     1.390-1.523     1.478
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  2010/11
  Soybeans          0.360     0.334     0.275-0.404     0.360
  Corn              1.312     1.307     0.970-1.535     1.373 
  Wheat             0.973     0.982     0.800-1.132     1.093 
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  US 2010/11 Production (bil bu)
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  Soybeans          3.433     3.366     3.290-3.432     3.345
  Corn             13.365    13.282    13.120-13.524   13.245
  Wheat             2.264     2.233     2.206-2.250     2.216

The wheat market seems to be enjoying the limelight so much that it must squeeze another day or two. There really isn’t anything in this USDA report that we did not all ready know and what is new is mildly bullish at best. At the moment our graph is still showing a classic bubble pattern. See below.

So the speculators are back at the front of the roller coaster. Prediction is a fools game but I just can’t resist, I reckon this is the last rise before the steepest fall on ride followed by the guy that took your money saying, ‘Please make sure you take all you belongings with you.

 

MARKET REPORT 11th August 2010

It feels like 2007/8 all over again. Speculative cash pouring in to in this case the wheat market possibly bored by the moribund nature of the Stock Market in 7/8 it was to recoup cash lost in the crash. The Market high last Friday tipped £169.00 on the Nov London Futures for wheat today we are £148.00 so have we topped out. For the Bulls there is the ongoing drought with potential damage even to next years harvest in Khazakstan Ukraine and Russia. Plus there is the potential of a weather market developing stateside too but this would probably effect Soya and Corn more. There is no doubt that the non commercials are in the mood for it and heat in the delta and so eastern plains has is stressing crops and could spread out. On the bearish side however apart from a little flooding the crops over the greater part of the Mid West seem to be in very could condition. With additional cereal acres in Argentina maybe 6MMT more will be produced in that country harvesting takes place in January also the Australians are taking advantage of the high market and are attempting to up production too.

At home fodder remains short due the Spring and early summer being so dry however this may be partly rectified by improved rains in the last week or so that may just allow for another cut and the Maize most of which will be used for fodder is reportedly looking good. There is still time for the EU sugar beet harvest to develop well too.

Tomorrow we have USDA World stock and production forecast. The trade estimate a figure of 3.357 billion bushels for the beans, 2.23 billion bushels for all wheat and 13.279 billion bushels for the corn. All try to get the actual figures up for you Thursday afternoon or Friday so have another ‘looksee’ then. Bye for now and keep you head down.

 

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